In a paper primarily authored by Susan Soloman, “Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gasses,” she and corroborating scientists studied the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models, and the Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity, before deciding to use the Bern 2.5CC Earth Model of Intermediate Complexity. In this study, the Bern 2.5CC models have indicated that even if the emission of CO2 ceased, the anthropogenic link to carbon dioxide and a warming atmosphere is irreversible for over a thousand years. Intuitively this model also shows decreased emissions of methane and carbon dioxide gasses could reverse some anthropogenic caused climate change effects.
Due to the limitations in understanding the earth’s atmospheric—systems—dynamic on its entire scale, rather than using a fully functional quantitative analysis, Solomon used exploratory and illustrative methods. One point that is clear, absence a change in contemporary “Business as Usual” policies the concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere will continue to rise.
Land masses and surface waters in the oceans are ideal heat sinks that siphon heat and gas out of the atmosphere. These sinks are short-term and limited to decades. The deep ocean it appears is another ideal sink; however, its ability to siphon heat and gasses is on a larger time-scale that involves centuries. Another aspect Solomon (et. al.), studied is heat and gasses that escape into the vacuum of space. They described this as “Radiative Forcing” with the mathematical equation, N = F – λΔTSurface, which states that the input flows of gasses caused by man that capture heat, minus the output flows of gasses and heat that the earth’s systems are sequestering or forcing into space, equals the net stock of gasses and heat remaining in the atmosphere. After modeling several hypothetical scenarios while trying to answer the question, “What will the Atmosphere see and over what timescale,” posed by John Gunn, (et. al., 2011) the main point that Solomon (et. al.), have made in conclusion is that without engineering to create greenhouse gas-neutral living accommodations or active anthropogenic sequestration, climate change is irreversible, and the sooner these technologies are invented or utilized the better.
Gunn, J.S., Ganz, D.J., Keeton, W.S. (2011). Biogenic vs. geologic carbon emissions and forest biomass energy production. Global Change Biology: Bioenergy. Blackwell Publishing LTD.
Solomon, S., Daniel, J.S., Sanford, T.J., Murpy, D.M., Plattner, G.K., Knutti, Reto., Friedlingstein, P. (2010). PNAS. Vol.107, no. 43. October 26, 2010. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10/1073/pnas.1006282017