In a world changing through technology and human advancement, one of the most desirable human survival practices is to covert energy into a useable form without the need or input of fossil fuels. Each year human consumption world-wide consumes better than 11 billion tons of oil equivalent energies in the form of fossil fuels, (Ecotricity, 2016.)
It is estimated that 1.66 trillion barrels of oil are left in the earth’s petroleum reserves, (CIA, 2015). At an extraction rate of 79.17 million barrels a day (CIA 2014), it is also estimated that the earth’s crude oil reserves will deplete to the point when they are no longer economically accessible by the year:
1.66* 1012 ÷ 79.17*106 = 20967.5
20967.5365 = 57.4
2016+57.4 = 2073.4
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) documents that in 2015, 95.01 million barrels of oil were extracted from the earth each day throughout the year. This exceeds Central Intelligence figures. The EIA also estimates that there are difficulties estimating when the world will see an end to economically viable crude oil, because new technologies advance the estimated reserves year by year. At present, the EIA predicts the world will not experience a crude oil shortage until after the year 2040. As for the United States, in 2014 EIA reports predicted that 36.4 million barrels of the world’s overall prospected oil reserves were found within the U.S. boarders and/or holdings. As of 2015 United States oil extraction facilities produced 9,415 barrels of crude oil per day (EIA).
Understanding the quantities, the United States will be totally dependent, sans stockpile reserves, and Gull Island conspiracy theories (Williams & Wilson, 1980), on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries during the year:
36.4*106÷9,415=3866.17
3866.17365=10.56
2016 + 10.59 = 2026.59
These figures concern oil and prospected/proven reserves. It is needless to explain at this time that petroleum, or its liquid derivatives, gasoline and diesel fuels, are the most valuable energy sources available. This is explained, in this case as a base-pertinent-point, because gasoline and diesel fuels are the substances that make industry and all the other energy production possible. Without these two fuels at human disposal, it is predicted that the transportation industry could not viably transport any other energy sources to conversion factories and power plants. It is stated as a part of this dossier that without oil to supply the transportation industry, the electricity industry would also suffer a major set-back in its day to day operations. In fact, it is predicted that without gasoline and diesel fuels, electricity production nearly world-wide would come to a, near, complete standstill.
Eighty-three percent of the world’s population lives in areas where electricity is available. That leaves over 1.201 billion people searching for a means to support their communities with electrical power, (CIA 2013). This will add a future taxing effect on the already taxed energy network world-wide and decrease the overall result of the above figures. Due to increasing populations and advancement of technology into third world countries, Ecotricity (2016) predicts that the world will experience an end of economically viable petroleum reserves by the year 2052. That figure is still over 20 years in advance of the time when the United States may become totally dependent on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
As of 2012 world-wide electrical production reached 22.57 trillion kWh. With a total world-wide consumption reaching only 20.99 trillion kWh (CIA 2012), 1.58 trillion kWh of electricity is wasted on a year by year basis. These wastes are in the form of friction, mechanical, transmission, copper losses and various other electrical losses between production facilities and the end user. (Enshaee & Enashaee, 2016; Ahmad & Hasan, 2016; Adefarati & Bansal, 2016).
Other energies wasted, are the energy releases from forest fires. The energy vented to the atmosphere along with greenhouse gasses from a single forest fire like the Lolo Peak fire could have supplied Missoula, and most of the the Bitterroot Valley with electrical power forever. If it were maintained properly, that is.
The author presented a presentation concerning this exact issue in front of a standing room only crowds at the 5th International fire conference in the Convention Center, Portland Oregon, 2012. (This presentation can be found on Youtube, and will be a part of a later blog.P
With these figures and this understanding it is apparent and it is imperative for the United States culture and populations that new technology be implicated and is required to curb the ever increasing demands for, and wastes of, energy.
Sixty-three percent of all electricity production in the world is created through the use of fossil fuels: 6.8% is from nuclear fuels, 18.7 % is from hydro power, and 9.2 % is from other renewable resources, (CIA 2012).
In today’s world of commercial and private energy production, every system also needs a failsafe installed to assure that energy reaches the end user with minimal losses and interruption of services, (Solomon, et al., 2016).
Major shortfall, at this time, are electrical losses in transmission lines. Other major shortfalls are in the act of extracting fossil fuels for energy production. These fuels will only sustain a world of energy consumers for as long as fossil fuels remain economically viable. It is a matter of physics, once the contents of a container, such as the earth are empty, energy production that is normally powered by fossil fuels will cease to occur. Unless, certain renewable resources are up-scaled, or new technology arises that allows for energy production sans the use of fossil fuels.
This series is mostly about capturing the energies released in a forest fire, and using those energies to supply mountain towns and cities with electrical power, instead of using coal fired power plants. It considers transportation fuels needed to provide a system that is totally independent of itself and self sustainable.
References
[1] Ecotricity. (2016). The End of Fossil Fuels. Britain’s leading green energy supplier. Lion House, Rowcroft, Stroud, Glouchestershire. https://www.ecotricity.co.uk/our-green-energy/energy-independence/the-end-of-fossil-fuels.)
[2] Inspector General. (2012-2015). The world factbook. Worldlink. Central Intelligence Agency. OpenGov. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html
[3] EIA. (2014-2016). Sources and Uses. U.S. Crude Oil Reserves, Annual. Annual Crude Oil Production. U.S. Department of Energy. 1001 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC. 20585. http://www.eia.gov/opendata/qb.cfm?sdid=PET.RCRR01NUS_1.A
[4] Williams, L., Wilson, C. (1980). The Energy Non-Crisis. Worth Publishing. 2 Rev Sub Ed. ISBN-13: 978-0890510681. ISBN-10: 0890510687.
[5] Enshaee, A; Enshaee, P. (2016). Approach to evaluate active loss contributions for transmission systems. IET Science Measurement & Technology. Vol. 10. Iss. 5 pp. 456-466. Doi: 10.1049/iet-smt.2015.0205.
[6] Ahmad, T; Ul Hasan, Q. (2016). Detection of Frauds and other non-technical losses in power utilities using smart meters. A review. International Journal of Emerging Electric Power Systems. Vol 17, iss. 3, pp. 217-234. Doi: 10.1515/ijeeps-2015-0206
[7] Adefarati, T; Bansal, R.C. (2016). Integration of renewable distributed generators into the distribution system: a review. IET Renewable Power Generation. Vol. 10, iss. 7, pp. 873-884 Doi: 10.1049/iet-rpg. 2015.0378
[8] Solomon, A.A., Kammen, D.M., Callaway, D. (2016). Investigation the impact of wind-solar complementarieties on energy storage requirement and corresponding supply reliability criteria. Applied Energy. Vol. 168, pp. 130-145. Doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.01.070
